“Extreme Turbidity Event Prediction & Monitoring”
BIOST3 Group & AIGÜES DE BARCELONA
Compiled on 20:44:58, 21 March, 2024
1 REPRESENTACION DE LA TURBIDEZ
# REPRESENTACION CAUDAL
# REPRESENTACION DE LA TURBIDEZ ULTIMAS 48H
## Terb.SC Cabal Terb.LI
## Terb.SC 1.0000000 0.2330361 0.7195049
## Cabal 0.2330361 1.0000000 0.3568359
## Terb.LI 0.7195049 0.3568359 1.0000000## Terb.SC Cabal Terb.LI
## Terb.SC 1.0000000 0.1608364 0.8733674
## Cabal 0.1608364 1.0000000 0.1884383
## Terb.LI 0.8733674 0.1884383 1.0000000## AIC(n) HQ(n) SC(n) FPE(n)
## 9 5 2 9## SC(n)
## 2##
## VAR Estimation Results:
## =======================
##
## Estimated coefficients for equation Terb.SC:
## ============================================
## Call:
## Terb.SC = Terb.SC.l1 + Cabal.l1 + Terb.LI.l1 + Terb.SC.l2 + Cabal.l2 + Terb.LI.l2 + const + trend
##
## Terb.SC.l1 Cabal.l1 Terb.LI.l1 Terb.SC.l2 Cabal.l2
## 0.6667082904 0.0001420085 -0.0276307348 0.2117008330 -0.0001378845
## Terb.LI.l2 const trend
## 0.0590560554 4.7221333534 -0.0005737665
##
##
## Estimated coefficients for equation Cabal:
## ==========================================
## Call:
## Cabal = Terb.SC.l1 + Cabal.l1 + Terb.LI.l1 + Terb.SC.l2 + Cabal.l2 + Terb.LI.l2 + const + trend
##
## Terb.SC.l1 Cabal.l1 Terb.LI.l1 Terb.SC.l2 Cabal.l2
## 7.735984460 0.983370992 -1.668505400 -3.276499545 -0.017190760
## Terb.LI.l2 const trend
## -1.055145064 108.781071902 0.002186042
##
##
## Estimated coefficients for equation Terb.LI:
## ============================================
## Call:
## Terb.LI = Terb.SC.l1 + Cabal.l1 + Terb.LI.l1 + Terb.SC.l2 + Cabal.l2 + Terb.LI.l2 + const + trend
##
## Terb.SC.l1 Cabal.l1 Terb.LI.l1 Terb.SC.l2 Cabal.l2 Terb.LI.l2
## 0.205559822 0.001304978 0.821806137 -0.010519499 -0.001072656 0.010356651
## const trend
## -0.645472501 -0.000206647##
## Portmanteau Test (asymptotic)
##
## data: Residuals of VAR object A1
## Chi-squared = 543.65, df = 72, p-value < 2.2e-16Ahora vamos a ver si los residuos son ruido blanco y no están correlados entre si. Aunque el p-value sale algo por encima de 0.05, lo damos por bueno.
## $Terb.SC
## fcst lower upper CI
## [1,] 26.34547 -21.88070 74.57165 48.22617
## [2,] 26.02109 -31.99277 84.03495 58.01386
## [3,] 25.67337 -40.29349 91.64023 65.96686
## [4,] 25.35732 -46.26988 96.98453 71.62720
## [5,] 25.05837 -51.00912 101.12586 76.06749
## [6,] 24.77804 -54.83652 104.39260 79.61456
## [7,] 24.51438 -58.00843 107.03720 82.52281
## [8,] 24.26640 -60.68119 109.21399 84.94759
## [9,] 24.03303 -62.96484 111.03090 86.99787
## [10,] 23.81333 -64.93746 112.56412 88.75079
## [11,] 23.60644 -66.65665 113.86953 90.26309
## [12,] 23.41156 -68.16591 114.98903 91.57747
## [13,] 23.22796 -69.49883 115.95475 92.72679
## [14,] 23.05496 -70.68189 116.79180 93.73685
## [15,] 22.89192 -71.73630 117.52014 94.62822
## [16,] 22.73826 -72.67935 118.15587 95.41761
## [17,] 22.59343 -73.52528 118.71214 96.11871
## [18,] 22.45690 -74.28603 119.19983 96.74293
## [19,] 22.32820 -74.97164 119.62803 97.29983
## [20,] 22.20687 -75.59069 120.00443 97.79756
## [21,] 22.09248 -76.15058 120.33553 98.24306
## [22,] 21.98463 -76.65768 120.62693 98.64230
## [23,] 21.88294 -77.11756 120.88344 99.00050
## [24,] 21.78706 -77.53510 121.10921 99.32216
##
## $Cabal
## fcst lower upper CI
## [1,] 2636.701 -1009.502 6282.904 3646.203
## [2,] 2708.978 -2431.632 7849.587 5140.610
## [3,] 2779.276 -3448.241 9006.792 6227.517
## [4,] 2846.731 -4251.177 9944.640 7097.908
## [5,] 2911.691 -4914.619 10738.000 7826.310
## [6,] 2974.220 -5477.079 11425.520 8451.299
## [7,] 3034.439 -5961.623 12030.500 8996.061
## [8,] 3092.441 -6383.601 12568.483 9476.042
## [9,] 3148.319 -6753.936 13050.573 9902.255
## [10,] 3202.156 -7080.806 13485.117 10282.961
## [11,] 3254.031 -7370.562 13878.625 10624.594
## [12,] 3304.021 -7628.285 14236.327 10932.306
## [13,] 3352.195 -7858.123 14562.513 11210.318
## [14,] 3398.621 -8063.525 14860.766 11462.146
## [15,] 3443.362 -8247.395 15134.119 11690.757
## [16,] 3486.481 -8412.207 15385.170 11898.689
## [17,] 3528.036 -8560.089 15616.161 12088.125
## [18,] 3568.084 -8692.879 15829.047 12260.963
## [19,] 3606.678 -8812.184 16025.540 12418.862
## [20,] 3643.871 -8919.408 16207.150 12563.279
## [21,] 3679.712 -9015.789 16375.214 12695.502
## [22,] 3714.251 -9102.420 16530.922 12816.671
## [23,] 3747.533 -9180.271 16675.337 12927.804
## [24,] 3779.603 -9250.206 16809.413 13029.809
##
## $Terb.LI
## fcst lower upper CI
## [1,] 27.45691 0.6798797 54.23395 26.77704
## [2,] 27.00267 -8.7701965 62.77553 35.77287
## [3,] 26.57442 -15.8858615 69.03470 42.46028
## [4,] 26.16371 -22.3307701 74.65820 48.49448
## [5,] 25.77287 -28.4053056 79.95104 54.17817
## [6,] 25.40149 -34.1696853 84.97266 59.57117
## [7,] 25.04948 -39.5954763 89.69443 64.64495
## [8,] 24.71640 -44.6532022 94.08600 69.36960
## [9,] 24.40172 -49.3267004 98.13014 73.72842
## [10,] 24.10480 -53.6151767 101.82478 77.71998
## [11,] 23.82493 -57.5295607 105.17943 81.35449
## [12,] 23.56139 -61.0885625 108.21134 84.64995
## [13,] 23.31340 -64.3153758 110.94218 87.62878
## [14,] 23.08023 -67.2352789 113.39573 90.31551
## [15,] 22.86111 -69.8739990 115.59621 92.73511
## [16,] 22.65530 -72.2566602 117.56727 94.91196
## [17,] 22.46210 -74.4071485 119.33136 96.86925
## [18,] 22.28081 -76.3477641 120.90939 98.62858
## [19,] 22.11077 -78.0990641 122.32060 100.20983
## [20,] 21.95133 -79.6798296 123.58248 101.63116
## [21,] 21.80188 -81.1071102 124.71087 102.90899
## [22,] 21.66184 -82.3963133 125.72000 104.05816
## [23,] 21.53067 -83.5613180 126.62265 105.09199
## [24,] 21.40783 -84.6145995 127.43025 106.02242
